On its homepage, Mercer Management Consulting is
posting an article written by two of its staff, John Hanson and Mark Teitell, for
Wireless Week (5/1/05) on the prospects of an iPod phone. More recent articles on the same subject have appeared in
Fortune (David Ewait on 7/8/05) and
ZDnet (John Carroll on 7/11/05). All three mention the emergence of MVNOs (mobile virtual network operators) as a possible strategy for Apple to defeat carriers' resistance to the idea of an iPod phone. Carriers don't like it that iPod users get to download music for 99 cents off iTunes rather than pay two or three times that much to download songs over a cellular service.
People are not going to give up paying 99 cents a song (or less).
MVNOs, like Virgin, buy service wholesale from carriers (like Sprint, in Virgin's case) and sell it retail under their own brands. It's a model that has worked great for Virgin, but also for Sprint since it means Sprint gets to benefit from Virgin's brand relationship with its customers (think much less customer churn and acquisition costs).
This means Apple launching a new business -- like it did when it launched iTunes. At least going the MVNO route would not require reinventing an entire industry's distribution model, like Apple had to when it started iTunes. This strategy would also let Apple subsidize the cost of the devices for consumers and still make money, just like the carriers subsidize the cost of high-end cell phones now.
Mercer also mentions WiFi as a potential strategy. They should have also mentioned WiMax, which is sort of like WiFi on steroids. Someday people will have wireless VoIP just like they have landline VoIP now, but that's probably still a ways off. Note, however, that cellular companies (Sprint, for example) have implemented on a case-by-case basis VPNs where users can take their wireless laptops from a WiFi service area to a cellular service area and back again transparently -- i.e., without needing to re-establish the connection.
So, I agree with Mercer. It's just a matter of time. People are not going to give up paying 99 cents a song (or less). And the market for iPod-enabled cell phones is obviously huge.
I think the biggest issue here is branding. Does Apple want to position itself as a cell phone provider? Or to put it another way: Is being a cell phone vendor cool? The three million Virgin subscribers must think so. On the other hand, does Apple want to concede to traditional cell phone companies the responsibility of saying how iPods should be presented to customers in the type of saturation (and discount dominated) advertising for which phone companies are famous? I don't think so.
Above all else, Apple is about the quality of the end-user experience. That's the single core issue that will drive how they inevitably enter the cell phone market.